Wednesday, February 18, 2009

Behavioral Trading, and my recent trades

I made a losing short on BAC friday. My loss was ($40). This was not a bad trade, it was a good lesson learned. A lot of times I may enter shorts because I for see EOD fades. This means waiting until definitively after 3pm but usually after 3:45 or 3:50. That I did on this short, and finally covered so I wouldn't have to hold over the weekend. Like we discussed in Financial Markets today, it helps traders to sleep better knowing their money is not invested in some far off land in some far off company. The funny thing about this EOD sell-off last Friday, was that it did in fact happen but not until around 3:59. Talk about pushing off the inevitable. Plenty might have jumped out like me for similar reasons for moderate losses. Smart money did not.

Smart Money is a term Robert Shiller uses to describe profitable traders. Tim Sykes always says 90% of traders lose money and 10% are consistently profitable. While the percentages might not be weighted this way, lets assume most people lose money- a fair assumption in my opinion. We could go into all of the market theory behind this, but I don't want my fingers to cramp in the morning.  I know the discussion would get lengthy. Anyway, I think Syke's profitable traders and Shiller's smart money are one in the same. If you are one of these traders then on most days, placed in the context of news and general market fear/glee you wait for the market to speak and simply react. In the future, I plan to compile a few charts and demonstrate how I trade and my candid reasoning for doing so.

Right now i'm o/n on a BAC short. I have large unrealized gains and my entry was 4.73. Its ridiculous that BAC has such large back to back red days, but when the DJI is testing new lows, its not a big deal as it would be otherwise. I'll post tomorrow when I close

I only watch C, BAC, and DJI these days. They have volume, I don't have to chat to borrow shares, and I get immediate and accurate fills. I'm not going to stop until these banks get nationalized... I hope I'm short on that day :)